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Friday, April 30, 2010

Sampath Bank : Net profit up 50.6% YoY to LKR 598.4mn

  • Net profit increased 50.6%YoY to LKR 598mn in 1Q2010 compared to LKR 397.4mn in 1Q2009. This increase was mainly due to the expenses falling at a faster rate than the fall in income of SAMP.
  • Forecast 2010 net profit is LKR 2,393.8 mn (up 15.5% YoY). With interest rates stabilizing (3 month Treasury Bill rates having fallen from 20.6% last year to 8.26%) the banking sector outlook remains positive with loan growth expected to continue the momentum in FY2010 due to the post war growth potential in the industry. SAMP's net interest margin is expected to be intact at around 5.3%, whilst continuing to benefit from the wider reach facilitated by the current 143 branches and new branches expected to open this year. Therefore a 15% YoY increase to LKR 2,393.8mn is likely for FY2010E and 14% YoY increase to LKR 2,736mn for FY2011E.
  • Share offers good value on 8.86X forecast 2010 net profit. The share is attractive where the share is trading at 8.86X forecast 2010 net profit, 7.76X projected 2011net profit earnings. PBV is at 1.32X forecast 2010 net profit and 1.13X forecast 2011 net profit.



Interest income reduced by 9.6% YoY during 1Q2010. This was due to a 13.7% YoY decrease in interest income from loans and advances to LKR 3,570.9mn. The loan book grew by 4.6% during the quarter due to interest rates falling. Interest income on other interest earning assets increased 4.8% to LKR 1,231mn YoY. Overall for 1Q2010, income reduced 10.3% YoY to LKR 5,480.3mn.

Interest expenses dropped by 28.4% in 1Q10 to LKR 2,561.2mn compared to 1Q09 of LKR 3,577.8mn. Interest expenses on deposits dropped 22% YoY, while interest expenses on other interest bearing liabilities dropped 57.9% YoY. Total deposits increased 5.4% during the quarter to LKR 132.8Bn from 126Bn in Dec2009.


Interest income has reduced 9.6% YoY during 1Q2010. Interest income reduced by 9.6% YoY during 1Q2010. This was due to a 13.7% YoY decrease in interest income from loans and advances to LKR 3,570.9mn. The loan book grew by 4.6% YoY during the quarter due to decreasing interest rates. Interest income on other interest earning assets increased 4.8% YoY to LKR 1,231mn. Overall for 1Q2010, income reduced 10.3% YoY to LKR 5,480.3mn.

Interest expenses have dropped 28.4% YoY. Interest expenses dropped by 28.4% YoY in 1Q10 to LKR 2,561.2mn compared to 1Q09 of LKR 3,577.8mn. Interest expenses on deposits dropped 22% YoY, while interest expenses on other interest bearing liabilities dropped 57.9% YoY. Total deposits increased 5.4% during the quarter to LKR 132.8Bn from 126Bn in Dec2009.

Net interest income has increased 29.4% YoY to LKR 2,240.7mn. During 1Q2010, despite interest income dropping 9.62% QoQ, interest costs dropped at a sharper pace of 28.4% which resulted in the 29.4% increase in net interest income.

Non interest income dropped 14.8%YoY. Non interest income dropped 14.8%YoY due to Foreign exchange income dropping 55.1% YoY in 1Q2010. However a 11% increase was recorded from other income.

Non interest expenses increased 17.2%YoY. Non interest expenses increased 17.2% YoY from LKR 1,272.5mn in 1Q2009 to LKR 1,490.9mn YoY in 1Q2010. This was mainly due to personnel costs increasing 20.5% to LKR 664.2mn from LKR 551mn YoY in 1Q2010.

Net interest margin increased to 5.59%. Net interest margin increased to 5.59% in 1Q2010 compared to 5.07% in 1Q2009. This helped the bank increase its profitability during the quarter.
Provisions have increased 121.8% YoY in 1Q2010. Provisions have increased 121.8% YoY in 1Q2010 to LKR 303.8mn. General provisions recorded a 100% YoY increase to record LKR 14.5mn. Specific provisions too have increased by 164.4% YoY to LKR 713.7mn. However recoveries have increased drastically during 1Q2010 by 219.1% YoY to LKR 424.5mn.

Operating profit has risen 21.7% YoY. Operating profit rose 21.7% YoY during 1Q2010 to LKR 1,186.4mn compared to LKR 974,996mn in 1Q2009. Furthermore the cost to income ratio increased to 61.4% in 1Q2010 from 55.75% in 1Q2009.

Total tax bill reduced 6.8% YoY to LKR 581,869mn. Total tax bill has reduced 6.8% in 1Q2010 YoY to LKR 581,869mn. This is mainly due corporate tax expenditure reducing by 29.5%.however the VAT on Financial services has increased by 22.4% Net profit up 50.6% YoY to LKR 598.411mn.

Consequently Net profit increased 50.6%YoY to LKR 598mn compared to LKR 397.4mn 1Q2009. This increase was mainly due to the expenses falling at a faster rate than the fall in income of SAMP. CAR (Tier 1 - Min 5%) increased to 10.26% (Tier 2 - Min 10%) 13.43%. Tier 1 CAR reduced marginally from 10.64% as at Dec2009 to 10.26% in 1Q2010 and Tier 2 CAR reduced from 13.87% in Dec2009 to 13.43% in 1Q2010.

Forecast 2010 net profit is LKR 2,393.8 mn (up 15.5% YoY). With interest rates stabilizing (3 month Treasury Bill rates having fallen from 20.6% last year to 8.26%) the banking sector outlook remains positive with loan growth expected to continue the momentum in FY2010 due to the post war growth potential in the industry. SAMP's net interest margins is expected to be intact at around 5.3%, whilst continuing to benefit from the wider reach facilitated by the current 143 branches new branches expected to open this year. Therefore a 15% YoY increase to LKR 2,393.8mn is likely for FY2010E and 14% YoY increase to LKR 2,736mn for FY2011E.

Share offers good value on 8.86X forecast 2010 net profit. The share is attractive where the share is trading at 8.86X forecast 2010 net profit, 7.76X projected 2011net profit earnings. PBV is at 1.32X forecast 2010 net profit and 1.13X forecast 2011 net profit.





Sri Lanka Equity Analytics
World Trade Centre
Colombo, Sri Lanka
Email: info@srilankaequity.com
Web: www.srilankaequity.com
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Sunday, April 4, 2010

Sri Lanka: 3.5% GDP Growth in 2009





The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009 was 3.5% with agriculture, industry and services registering positive growth rates of 3.2%, 4.2% and 3.3% respectively. According to the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the economic activities which registered relative significant growth among the sectors last year are rubber at 7.9%, vegetables at 7.3%, fishing at 6.9%, other mining at 18.1%, hotels and restaurants at 13.3% and post and telecommunication at 11.7%. According to a DCS press release, the percentage share of the three sectors, agriculture, industry and services, to the total GDP more or less remained unchanged at 12%, 28.6% and 59.3% respectively. The DCS also stated that the estimated per-capita GDP at market prices (per capita income) for the reference year is Rs.235,945 (U$ 2053).

The total investment rate in 2009 was 24.5% while the government investment ratio increased to 6.6% in 2009 from 6.5% the year before. Gross saving increased to 23.7% in 2009 compared to 17.3% in 2008.

According to the DCS, Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices was estimated at Rs.3,103,806 million in 2009 compared to Rs.3,085,296 million in 2008. The Government Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices was estimated at Rs.851,549 million in 2009 in comparison to Rs.713,788 million in 2008.

The annual average inflation rate as measured by the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) was 3.5% in 2009 compared to 22.6% in 2008 which was the highest rate ever recorded after 2002 when the new base year was introduced. However, the DCS noted that the highest ever recorded drop in inflation since February 2004 was registered at 0.7% in the month of September in 2009.

Agriculture
The agriculture sector grew by 3.2% in 2009 amidst a decrease in earnings from exports and the prevailing drought weather conditions. The DCS stated that the tea sub sector which decelerated for the first three quarters of 2009 grew by 18.3% at the end of 2009. Although, the paddy sub-sector during “Yala season” registered a negative growth of 5.1%, the harvested paddy production in 2009 was the second best yield ever produced since 1952. The DCS said that it seems that the impediments and barriers which affected the agriculture and fisheries industry in many districts due to unrest faded away with the end of terrorism.

Paddy production
Paddy production in 2009 was the second best harvest ever produced after 1952 and also the second best harvested land extent area for paddy cultivation. The obtained paddy yield per acre for the 2009 was 83.5 bushels compared to 81.2 bushels in 2008. Production in the Eastern province increased by 5.2% which contributed 25.1% to the total paddy production of the country.

Tea production
Tea production increased by 18.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009 after declining in the first three quarters due to the global economic crisis and drought weather conditions. The DCS attributed the increase in the fourth quarter to the cessation of the dought and increases in export prices.

Rubber
The value added for rubber production increased to 7.9% in 2009. Although growth declined in the first, second and third quarters, the fourth quarter shows a significant growth of 22.3%.

Livestock
The sub-sector of livestock production for 2009 is 6.2% compared to 5.6% in 2008. Milk production recorded an increase in production to 233.3 million liters for the year 2009 signifying 12.1 percent growth.

Fishing
The fishing Industry grew by 6.9% in 2009, flourishing due to lifting of imposed security measures specially in the East and the North costal belt, and the deep sea during the unrest period in the country, according to the DCS. The fishing industry grew by 12.7% at the third quarter of 2009. Inland fish production went down by 11% at the fourth quarter of 2009 due to lower water storage capacity of many inland reservoirs.

Industry
The industry sector grew by 4.2% in 2009 compared to 5.9% growth the previous year. The manufacturing sector which contributes 60.9% to the industry sector grew by 3.3% in 2009. Electricity, Gas & Water increased by 3.7% and the construction industry reported 5.6% growth for the year under review.

Manufacturing
The manufacturing industry grew by 3.4% while the food and beverages industry registered exceptional growth of 5.9% in 2009, according to the DCS.

Electricity, Gas and Water
The growth rate for the sub sector of Electricity, Gas & Water was 3.7% for 2009 while Thermal power generation contributed 60% to the total power generation in 2009. Thermal power generation grew by 3.7% and Hydro power generation decreased by 5.6%.

Hotels and Restaurants
The Hotels and Restaurants Sector recorded a 13.3% growth in 2009 compared to a negative growth rate of 5% the previous year. Although tourist arrival decreased up to May in 2009, it increased during the rest of the year due to restored normalcy in the ountry. The DCS stated that the prevailing stability across the country caused tourists arrival to increase by 2.1% to 447,899 in 2009. Tourist earnings and room occupancy rates also increased by 8.2% and 10.3% respectively in 2009.

Transport and Communication
The Transport and Communication Sector indicated 6.6 percent growth in 2009. Passenger and goods transportation, Cargo handling and Post and Telecommunication are the main sub sectors which contributed to the positive growth.

The Sri Lanka Transport Board has reported increases in daily bus operations by 5.6% and passenger kilometers traveled increased by 0.5% in 2009. Income from Passengers also increased by 3.1% due to the resumption of long distance transport services and the introduction of ‘Dumriyen Bus Riyata’.

Banking insurance and real estate
This sector expanded by 5.7% in 2009. Banks maintained their interest income, non interest income and expenses, leading to increased profits.
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